110 years' worth of natural gas - at present use levels

According to the Potential Gas Committee, a team of experts that analyzes natural gas supply every two years, the U.S. has 2 trillion cubic feet of natural gas reserves. That amount represents over 110 years of supply at current levels of consumption and is the largest estimated amount in the 44-year history of the report.

Exponential Times

It struck me that during the Great Depression, it took about 5 years before the Government started considering injecting significant currency into the markets. In January of 2008, we were worried about inflation. It's taken less than 12 months for the US Government to start pumping liquidity into the market. Another interesting fact: It took about ten years after the Great Depression for the US Government to issue bonds that carried a negative interest rate. This time, it took less than 6 months, after the stock market nose-dived.

I believe with the "speed of information travel" being SO fast (and getting faster), that we are in "exponential times".

If we think that societies' "speed" will not create a significant energy demand surge, then we're kidding ourselves. The recession may last a few years, but soon - the economy will roar back. The investments we make (in renewable energy & energy-efficient technologies) now will pay significant dividends, later. However (=opinion alert=), if we do not invest now, the U.S. will become a third-world nation.

Carbon future prices? $50 a ton

According to Greg Burns of the Chicago Tribune, the Chicago Climate Futures Exchange launched a new set of carbon-credit contracts. The price for 2013 carbon this week? $50 a ton.

Great interivew about the future of energy

Charlie Rose interviewed Charlie Maxwell and Daniel Yergin about the future of energy. If you are seriously interested in this topic, it is worth the time to watch!

Bankers, consumers... now automakers

Everyone wants a bailout! Whatever happened to our advice to the Japanese when their economy went south in the 1990s? We (U.S. policymakers) told them to let banks fail, in order to cleanse the system of those who should never be allowed to survive. All others would become stronger as a result, and the economy would ultimately recover in a more robust manner. I huess we don't listen to our own words.

Now - because the automakers never did (really) understand [1] what consumers wanted, nor [2] what was going to happen in a peak-oil-world, they want a bail-out, too. And D.C. is considering it!(?). This will only give them the money they need to keep spending the way they have. What happens if one of them fails? The others will become stronger! What happens if we bail them out? They continue their spendthrift ways, without the wake-up call they need.

Opinion alert: I do not think we should reward bad behavior! With all the largess, hyper-inflation will be headed our way, soon enough. Keep an eye open for it.

Just curious...What happened to the greedy oil executives?

When gas prices were skyrocketing, everyone was blaming greedy oil companies. Now that gas prices have dropped, does this mean oil execs are no longer greedy? Or the cause?
Since oil is a commodity, it is purely supply & demand that drives oil prices up... or down. With a global recession, prices have dropped precipitously. That's what happens. Therefore, we ought to take this time to reinvigorate renewable energy technology acceleration. NOT go back to being asleep at the wheel.

VeraSun Energy files for bankruptcy

The VeraSun Energy Corporation, which accounts for roughly 7 percent of ethanol production capacity in the United States, announced that it had filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy protection late Friday.

As reported in this blog since 2005, corn ethanol just doesn't "pencil out":

=> Corn ethanol is just bad science and bad business.
=> Corn ethanol is not the answer.
=> Is Ethanol really right for the economy and environment?
=> Oregon's Renewable Energy Action Plan.

We need a 21st Century Energy Initiative that relies on science (not political whim) to develop the new technologies to get us through to the next century!

Energy industries set to change over first half of century: Shell chief

"Energy industries will be transformed over the first half of this century and 'business as usual' projections for rising energy demand and CO2 emissions are simply unsustainable," according to Malcolm Brinded, Executive Director Exploration and Production, Royal Dutch Shell.

Continuing problem? Energy

"While many of the world's best business brains are exercising themselves over the current global banking and equities crisis, there is another issue which has the potential to dominate our lives far more in the longer term -- energy." From a CNN report.

You Think It's Bad Now?

The just-released chapter* "You Think It's Bad Now?" - explores in more detail the unsustainable growth in automobiles in China and India, and why significant, comprehensive, bi-partisan actions need to be taken now to address the growing "energy shift" that will hit us very hard: Twelve times as much oil will be needed in 2024 to meet the demand for (just) two countries - to get to the same "standard of living" as the United States - as measured by the number of cars per 1000 people.

* From the new book "How to Solve Our Energy Problems: The 21st Century Energy Initiative".

OIl on the Brain

Check out Lisa Margonelli's website - and her book "Oil on the Brain." Lisa is an Irvine Fellow at the New America Foundation.

Oil prices ready to drop?

Many opinions about this. We certainly have an oil bubble, and those who are speculating will be hurt most when oil drops. But a drop will likely be short-lived and not too severe (unless we start seeing large-country / world-wide depression - then all bets are off.) Short of that, for the long term (due to the many factors described in this blog - not the least of which is simple supply & demand), the price of oil will continue to rise. Another opinion: U.S. News article by James Pethokoukis.

SAIC's Report on Peak Oil

Although they would not describe it as such, SAIC's "predictions" are, unfortunately, coming true.

Penalizing U.S. oil companies due to Chinese subsidizing oil?

Some countries are subsidizing gas prices for their citizens. The result? Higher demand. Which increases gas prices further. A few of the culprits.

Supply & Demand facts

Please check out the demand growth in China, India, Russia and Canada: Especially from a percentage basis. This, coupled with [1] oil supply peaking, [2] the falling value of the dollar, and [3] U.S.'s energy dependence growing from 25% to 60% since 1973 provides the root cause of oil price spikes. Well, that and a total lack of funding and lack of an integrated energy policy, focused on energy independence. Leadership, anyone?

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Is demand finally slowing?

A couple interesting articles:

[1] The average per-gallon price topped $4 in 11 states.

[2] People are finally cutting back.

My guess? Short term, prices will come down a bit (don't they always go up right before a 3-day weekend?). Long term, prices will increase dramatically. Unless there is a world-wide depression, in which case, all bets are off. Bottom line: Supply is decreasing. Peak oil is hitting countries, now:



That said, the fundamental supply is shrinking and demand is increasing. Alternatives to burning stuff for energy are the only thing that will get us through the coming decades. One person's perspective.

$10 to $12 a gallon?

Senator Lugar's (Indiana) audacious speech

Senator Lugar's speech* reflects the major points in this blog: We, as a nation must have the political courage to think in completely different terms, in how we solve our growing energy problems. (In other news, oil hit $119 a barrel, today.)

Lugar Announces Energy Plan: Senator Lugar's address to the Richard G. Lugar-Purdue University Summit on Energy Security.

Global supply & demand do their thing.

"In the early part of the decade new production from the former Soviet Union accounted for most of the growth in the world's supply of oil and gas. But when Mr Putin began his campaign to take control of Russia's resources, that growth stalled, just as China's demand for energy was taking off. The present high prices for oil and gas are the result." - The Economist

Is the solution $100 a barrel?

Please visit John Mauldin's provocative article, where he asserts that $100 a barrel will help us overcome our oil dependence. (The premium to create an Energy Independence Fund seems a lot less painful than this approach, don't you think?)

What can compete with oil?

We may want to consider that full replacement of oil will require some serious “original thinking”! Especially in light of the fact that whatever replaces oil will need to have its source be “free.” What do I mean by that? Oil is essentially free. The “stuff” is in the ground. It costs to buy mineral rights, extract, refine and distribute it. Other than that, the “goes-into” is free! What else is free? Solar, hydro, wind, wave, tide energy all have their “source energy” as free! Although energy efficiency and substitutes like bio-fuels are extremely important, we must seriously consider the issues of the base costs of energy. According to the Renewable Fuels Association, “It would take about 300 million gallons of water for processing the product and cooling equipment to make 100 million gallons of ethanol each year.” We need to think WAY outside the box! We need an Energy Independence Fund ASAP!

What is really causing this gas-price run-up?

Supply & demand, nationalization and political turmoil is at the root of current price run-up. The graphics from a recent Business Week article tell a compelling story!

- Not just "Big Oil" anymore!
- Supply & demand: Peak oil!
- Nationalization
- Resulting in higher prices

Compared with the 1970s.

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This site is funded by readers like you. Please donate whatever you can to keep the truth about energy independence coming to you. Thank you.

Visit www.energy2025.com!

For a unique approach to our energy problem, visit www.energy2025.com. There, you will find access to detailed research (into "Hydrogen pricing"), as well as how to create and fund an Energy Independence Fund. You will also find a summary 2-page "opinion letter" and links to Senators and Representatives... to get your voice heard.